There we lots of newspaper headlines and smiley faces on the network news programs yesterday, reporting that house sales were actually "up 4.7% in February!"That does kind of beg the question, however, "compared to what?" One might be excused for assuming that was compared to February 2008, but it was actually compared to January 2009, which was abysmal. Compared to February 2008 (the more logical month to contrast, and one in which sales were only kind of bad), Feb '09 house sales were actually down 41%, which is not really that good; although you'd never know it by the big goofy grin on Brian Williams' face as he told us there was "finally some good economic news to report."
I read recently that fewer than one-third of Americans can name the three branches of government. An even smaller percentage of journalists can interpret data.
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Certainly Brian Williams is no John Maynard Keynes. I think what got people excited (and they want to get excited about something) is that these numbers were "better than analysts expected". I don't know who these analysts are but they seem to be right as often as a roomful of chimps would be. Maybe less.
I don't begrudge somebody trying to throw a little sunshine on what up to now has been some pretty dismal data. We could use a little confidence. Not lies or obfuscation -- just a little encouragement.
I agree, but "down 41% v. last year" counts as unhelpful BS for me.
The other thing I forgot to mention was that even the "+4.7%" number was accurate +/- 19%, redering it completely meaningless to begin with. We got into this problem, in large part, because we came to believe our own bullshit. time to wake up.
+/- 19%?!? What kind of statistics are these? I refer back to my chimp analogy. J. Fred Muggs could be Secretary of Commerce.
Benjamin Disraeli said it best- "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."
In a good article in The New Yorker this past week on Ponzi schemes by Ron Chernow, Baudelaire was reputed to say that we descend into hell by tiny steps. A number of so-called smart people have caught flat footed in each of these schemes.
Nicholas Kristof in today's Times wrote about how experts tend to be wrong.
The general consensus was all over BHO like flies on a picnic for not being optimistic. What's to be happy about economically now other than we are seeing bullsh*t walk?
I know my comfort level with the economy will improve when the house next to me and the one across the street sells. It is going to take more than a couple of months to gwt everyone working who wants to work and a couple of months after that for everyone to spend a buck and enjoy life while its here.For all of you WGH panthers out there, does it still count that the WGH radiers are in State basketball final four starting today?
I am surprised that one and three can name the three branches of government. We give a political knowledge test to incoming employees as we work with the Democratic party. Everyone is either in college or a grad. We don't have much better than 1 out of 3 college grads who can name the three branches. We are lucky to find 1 in 10 who know how a bill goes through Congress. Almost none have heard of a conference committee. If you don't know what you have, why would you care if you lose it?
You bet it counts cuz. I'm streaming live at 5:15 this afternoon. Go panthers - er Raiders!
News reporting, there's only one Walter Cronkite, & he's not talking.
As far as glimmers of hope,remember that the stock market runs on stories and/or rumor. If someone farts in the middle east or it rains heavy in Texas the price of oil goes up. Maybe afew well placed lies or some good news will stimulate the economy.
I dont know if these stories will help but, Ohio State is National Champs in every sport, the Cleveland Browns are good, & we all get lucky all the time.
Keep the faith brothers & sisters.
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